The next four weeks will determine whether Europe’s economy is facing a fresh crisis or simply a speed bump in its recovery.

That’s how long U.S. President Donald Trump says his strikes on Iran — which have already killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggered a wave of counter attacks across the Middle East and sent energy costs surging — will last.

A lengthier campaign risks sabotaging the euro zone’s fledgling revival while reawakening inflationary forces that the European Central Bank has fought hard to contain. A reliance on oil and gas from the region makes the bloc the “most exposed major economy” to Iran spillovers, ING’s Carsten Brzeski reckons.