SEOUL – All eyes were on Seoul, South Korea, recently as Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. President Donald Trump to negotiate a framework for managing their economic relationship. But, to understand China’s economic prospects, another recent meeting also warrants attention: the Fourth Plenary Session of the Communist Party of China, where China’s leaders adopted the CPC’s recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development (2026-30).
The Fourth Plenum did not deliver the leadership overhaul that some expected. Beyond the appointment of Zhang Shengmin as the second vice chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission — his predecessor He Weidong, along with 10 other officials, was recently expelled from the CPC — little of note took place on the personnel front. If anything, the meeting reaffirmed Xi’s dominance, reinforcing expectations that he will seek a fourth five-year term in 2027.
China’s economy has so far been coping relatively well with the Trump administration’s increasingly hostile measures, including high tariffs and export controls on high-tech products. As noted in the communique issued at the Fourth Plenum, the CPC views the current Five-Year Plan as a success and expects China’s gross domestic product per capita to be on a par with that of a “mid-level developed country” by 2035.
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