KYIV/URBANA, Illinois/BERKELEY, California – Twelve years ago, Ukraine was sleepwalking toward catastrophe. Now Europe is.
Before 2014, Ukraine’s military had been hollowed out by decades of neglect and disarmament. That was a choice. Why spend scarce resources on defense when the 1994 Budapest Memorandum offered security assurances in exchange for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear arsenal? Why prepare for a conflict that the prevailing intellectual consensus said could never happen? Liberal democracy had triumphed, great-power conflict was a relic and the arc of progress bent toward peace, liberalization and economic convergence.
Worse, Ukraine allowed Russia to penetrate its information space, promote pro-Kremlin narratives, cultivate political allies and meddle in Ukraine’s elections. Under President Viktor Yanukovych, a former Russian citizen served as minister of defense. The army was sabotaged from within.
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