“Ukraine today is Asia tomorrow.” Asian strategists and policymakers have been guided by that homily for over four years. A chat this week with an old friend who has been working on the frontlines of the conflict in Ukraine gave me the opportunity to figure out more specifically what that means for security policy. And it’s worrisome.
Robert Potter focuses on cybersecurity, having founded several companies, advised governments around the world and is on the board of Cyber Diia, a Ukrainian nonprofit that works to strengthen the country’s digital resilience and cybersecurity. That work has exposed him to all facets of digital conflict, from stealing national infrastructure to combating mis-, dis- and malinformation. He spends about half his time in Ukraine and recently embedded with Ukrainian Marines and drone teams across the frontline. (He is also a senior adjunct fellow at Pacific Forum, where I work.)
His first lesson is to prepare for a world of financial attrition in the battlespace. Conflict is being extended and endurance is the coin of the realm. Conflict does not mean high-end, kinetic warfare. Rather, adversaries are increasingly inclined to hybrid engagement that is harder to attribute, difficult to defend against and leaves plenty of room for escalation. It is death by a thousand cuts, sapping will and slowly, inexorably degrading capability and draining resources.
With your current subscription plan you can comment on stories. However, before writing your first comment, please create a display name in the Profile section of your subscriber account page.