BERLIN – Brazilians awoke on Monday to a changed political map. Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is now under house arrest for attempting to overturn the last presidential election, has received 47% of the vote in the first round of this year’s presidential election, while the incumbent, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, received 45%. Brazil appears poised to join the growing ranks of rightward-veering countries.
In fact, Bolsonaro’s first-place finish understates the scale of Brazil’s political shift. The far-right Liberal Party (PL) also won five governorships outright, and its allies took Sao Paulo, Goias and three other states. It will hold 28 of 81 Senate seats, the largest faction in a legislative session since 1988. Fernando Haddad, Lula’s former finance minister, lost Sao Paulo in the first round, and in Rio de Janeiro, a PL candidate who trailed the former mayor by 18 points just last month, nearly beat him outright.
With a presidential runoff set for Oct. 25, Bolsonaro is now the clear favorite. Lula could still close the gap, but he has no room for error. Every first-round leader since 1989 whose election went to a runoff has gone on to win the second round.
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