To Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Sunday’s second-place finish to Flavio Bolsonaro stung all the more because he’d believed he could secure a knockout over his right-wing challenger.

“I was convinced I would win the election in the first round,” the leftist leader known as Lula said in Sao Paulo after the final results showed an unexpected lead for Bolsonaro, who now heads into the Oct. 25 runoff as the overwhelming favorite.

For some allies, the admission was less a statement of strength than a demonstration of how badly the campaign had misread the electorate. The next three weeks will determine whether it proves enough of a jolt to jump-start Lula’s campaign and help the political veteran deliver one more dramatic comeback.